Abstract: Most studies investigating early risk predictors in coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) lacked comparison with controls. We aimed to assess and directly compare outcomes and risk predictors at time of emergency department (ED) presentation in COVID-19 and controls. Consecutive patients presenting to the ED with suspected COVID-19 were prospectively enrolled. COVID-19-patients were compared with (i) patients tested negative (overall controls) and (ii) patients tested negative, who had a respiratory infection (respiratory controls). Primary outcome was the composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death at 30 days. Among 1081 consecutive cases, 191 (18%) were tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and 890 (82%) were tested negative (overall controls), of which 323 (30%) had a respiratory infection (respiratory controls). Incidence of the composite outcome was significantly higher in COVID-19 (23%) as compared with the overall control group (10%, adjusted-HR 2.45 (95%CI, 1.61-3.74), p < 0.001) or the respiratory control group (10%, adjusted-HR 2.93 (95%CI, 1.66-5.17), p < 0.001). Blood oxygen saturation, age, high-sensitivity troponin, c-reactive protein, and lactate dehydrogenase were identified as the strongest predictors of poor outcome available at time of ED presentation in COVID-19 with highly comparable prognostic utility in overall and respiratory controls. In conclusion, patients presenting to the ED with COVID-19 have a worse outcome than controls, even after adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics. Most predictors of poor outcome in COVID-19 were not restricted to COVID-19, but of comparable prognostic utility in controls and therefore generalizable to unselected patients with suspected COVID-19.
Tags: (Grant No P300PB_167803), the Swiss Heart Foundation, the Swiss Society of, Abbott, Amgen, Astra Zeneca, Roche, Siemens, Singulex, and Thermo Scientific, and the University Hospital Basel and speaker honoraria/consulting honoraria from, Basel, that are unrelated to this work, and consultant fees from Janssen. S., BRAHMS. Kuster reports research support from the Swiss National Science, Cardiology, the Cardiovascular Research Foundation Basel, the University of Basel, characteristics, comparison, conflict of interest., controls, Covid-19, difficile, of the Pfizer Anti-infective Advisory Board, the Menarini and Shionogi, Forschung der Freiwilligen Akademischen Gesellschaft Basel, and the, Foundation (Grant No IZCOZ0_189877) and the Cardiovascular Research Foundation, Foundation (NRP 72 167060) and (197901), NCCR AntiResist (180541), the Gottfried, Jubilaumsstiftung from Swiss Life. Authors not named here have disclosed no, outcome, risk prediction, SARS-CoV-2, Scientific Advisory Boards. She reports grants from the Swiss National Science, Tschudin-Sutter is a member of the Astellas and MSD Advisory Boards for C., und Julia Bangerter-Rhyner Stiftung, the Fonds zur Forderung von Lehre und.